Pay data: three months to September 2020 and 2021 predictions

Various research organisations have published pay data for the three months to September 2020, along with predictions for the next 12 months.

  • The median pay award across the economy stands at 2.2% for the three months to September, according to the latest monitoring by Incomes Data Research (IDR).
  • Data from the Labour Research Department’s Payline shows the median three-month settlement at 2.0%.
  • XpertHR has recorded a median basic pay award of nil for the three months to September (lower quartile: 0%; upper quartile: 2.1%).

Looking ahead, IDR says that the level of pay award in 2021 looks to follow a similar pattern to that of 2020 (i.e. lower than the previous year): 48% of employers anticipate the level of pay rise will be lower in 2021 than in 2020, and 38% predict the level will be the same as in 2020.

XpertHR predicts a depressed picture for pay awards in 2021. Over the last 12 months, its measure of the median award in the private sector was 2.2% and it says that private sector employers are forecasting a 2021 median award of 1%. Half of employee groups are expected to receive a pay award worth between nil (the lower quartile) and 2% (the upper quartile). A pay freeze was the most commonly cited outcome, accounting for 44.8% of employee groups for which a pay forecast figure was provided.