Pay data: three months to January 2023

Various pay research bodies have published pay data for the three months to the end of January 2023, as well as forecasts for 2023 more generally.

  • XpertHR recorded a median basic pay award of 6.0% across the whole economy for the three months to the end of January (lower quartile: 4.5%; upper quartile: 7%) – the highest level it's recorded since September 1991. Pay freezes are wholly absent.
  • According to the Labour Research Department, the median for the period ending January was 8.0% on lowest basic pay rates across all agreements and 6.5% standard increase for all other workers covered by the settlement.
  • Incomes Data Research shows the median whole economy pay award at 5% for the three months to January (interquartile range 3.5% to 6.0%). Generally as regards pay intentions for 2023, IDR finds that over half of employers anticipate awarding increases of 5% or more.
  • The CIPD’s Winter 2022-23 Labour Market Outlook reveals that employers’ median base pay rise expectation is 5%, a record high for this index. Expected pay awards in both the private sector and voluntary sector also stand at 5%. However, the median anticipated public sector pay rise has fallen to 2%, down from 3% in the previous quarter.