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Various research organisations have published pay data for the three months to September 2019 along with predictions for the following months.

• XpertHR shows the median basic pay award in the three months to September 2019 at 2.5%, with the interquartile range being 2% (the lower quartile) and 3.0% (the upper quartile).
• Incomes Data Research shows the median award across the whole economy also remains at 2.5%, having been at this level since the start of the year.
• Data from the Labour Research Department’s Payline also shows the median at 2.5%.

XpertHR has also looked at what’s likely to happen to pay settlements in the year to 31 August 2020. It finds that wage growth is expected to slow, with a going rate of 2.1% forecast. Manufacturing and production employers (2.2%) are slightly more optimistic than private-sector services (2%).