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Various research organisations have published pay data for the three months to January 2021 as well as predictions for the whole of 2021.

• XpertHR recorded a median basic pay award of 1% across the whole economy for the three months to the end of January (lower quartile: 0%; upper quartile: 2.0%), with pay freezes remaining commonplace at a third of recorded settlements. All of the awards monitored by XpertHR for this period are in the private sector.
• Data from the Labour Research Department shows the median standard increase for the three months to January 2021 was 2.0% - the median increase on the lowest pay rate was 2.1%. However, the three months figures are based on a small number of agreements.
• The median pay award across the economy has fallen to 1.8% for the three months to January 2021 according to the latest monitoring by Incomes Data Research (lower quartile: 0.0%; upper quartile: 2.5%).
• The CIPD’s Winter 2020-21 Labour Market Outlook, looking at the year ahead, says that settlements ‘look to remain subdued’ with the median basic pay increase predicted to be 1%. However, the pay outlook for private sector workers over the coming 12 months is brighter than the outlook for public sector workers. The median basic pay award in the private sector in the 12 months to January 2022 will be 1.5%. By comparison, basic pay expectations in the public sector have fallen from 2% to 0% during the same period. Almost a third of employers will postpone carrying out a pay review in 2021, particularly so in the hospitality and business services sectors.